{"id":211,"date":"2022-03-20T00:49:13","date_gmt":"2022-03-20T00:49:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nirvc.com\/blog\/?p=211"},"modified":"2022-09-19T16:49:50","modified_gmt":"2022-09-19T21:49:50","slug":"rvs-the-economy-and-you-update-2-part-two","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nirvc.com\/blog\/rvs-the-economy-and-you-update-2-part-two\/","title":{"rendered":"RVs, the Economy and You! UPDATE #2, Part Two"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Below is a transcript of his video and here is a link to the full video explanation<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Welcome National Indoor RV Center\u2019s family of customers and friends to RVs, the Economy and You! UPDATE #2, Part Two. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Part Two we\u2019re going to discuss a\nlittle history, along with the following six topics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. Monetary Policy 1 (MP1)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. Monetary Policy 2, or \u201cQuantitative\nEasing\u201d (MP2)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. Monetary Policy 3, \u201cHelicopter Money\u201d (MP3)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4. Supply and Demand<\/p>\n\n\n\n

5. Labor Force Participation (LFP)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

6. Stock Market<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s discuss the three stages of\nmonetary policy, starting with what\u2019s referred to as Monetary Policy 1, or MP1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For decades MP1 was the primary monetary\npolicy. MP1 is the practice of modulating interest rates to affect the economy.\nFor decades these changes in interest rates worked, because they impacted so\nmany things. By reducing interest rates the Fed was able to stimulate the\nprices of financial assets, which led to more wealth-effect induced spending,\nit increased debt-fueled capital investment, and reduced borrowing costs. By\nincreasing interest rates the Fed was able reduce demand, and reduce inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For those of us who are old enough, I\u2019m\nsure you\u2019ll remember our nation\u2019s rate of inflation during the 1970s, and early\n1980s. Inflation peaked at 14%, the Prime Interest Rate hit 21.5%, and the\nunemployment rate reached 10.8%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve, lead by Chairman\nPaul Volcker, raised the Discount Rate, the rate banks could borrow from the\nFed to 14%, and raised the Fed Funds Rate, the overnight rate banks lend to\neach other, to a whopping 20%! Think about that for a minute. If you\u2019re a bank,\nand have the opportunity to lend your money overnight at no risk, and earn 20%\nper annum, what interest rate would you need to earn on a loan in order to\nentice you to take on the risk of the loan? 23%? 24%? 25%? Clearly, lending\nground almost to a halt, which thwarted demand, and the rate of inflation came\ndown fast, dropping to 3% by 1983. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bottom line, under MP1, interest rates\nwere the driver used to change the levels of borrowing, and lending in order to\nalter spending habits. If you remember, we used to see 3 to 5 percent interest\nrate changes in order to move our economy. But, when short-term interest rates\nnear zero, as they did following the 2008 Financial Crisis, MP1\u2019s effectiveness\nwas greatly reduced. Enter Monetary Policy 2, or MP2, or Quantitative Easing,\nor QE for short.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During the Great Recession our economy\nwas very weak, inflation was reasonably low at 3.84%, and interest rates,\nspecifically the Fed Funds rate, were approaching zero, as it stood at 0.09%.\nOur country was in a financial crisis! There was no room for the Fed to lower\ninterest rates to stimulate our economy. They were already near zero! Credit\nhad completely dried up. The government sponsored mortgage enterprises FNMA and\nFHLMC we\u2019re taken over by the government, money markets were \u201cbreaking the\nbuck,\u201d ships weren\u2019t docking to unload their cargo, because our global trading\npartners didn\u2019t trust our bank\u2019s Letters of Credit guaranteeing payment for\ntheir goods, and I could go on, and on. The Fed needed to stimulate credit, and\nstat! The Fed responded by purchasing long term treasury bonds, and\nnon-treasury securities ranging from mortgage backed securities, commercial\npaper, plus a plethora of other types and classes of securities. The Fed\u2019s\nchange in policy from purchasing only treasury securities during its Open\nMarket Operations, to purchasing all types of securities, and in never before\nseen amounts, was called Quantitative Easing. And, Quantitative Easing has\ncontinued unabated since the Financial crisis of 2008 to today. They\u2019ve never\nstopped purchasing large amounts of securities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With the Fed having been so accommodative\nunder both Monetary Policy 1, and Monetary Policy 2 since the Great Recession,\nyou might be wondering, why didn\u2019t we see inflation? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Well, we did. We\u2019ve seen a lot of\ninflation in assets. Think of the tremendous gains in the Stock Market, the\nprices of homes, and real estate. But, none of us complained about our assets\nincreasing in value. And then, suddenly, the Pandemic hit, and ushered in\nMonetary Policy 3, or MP3, or more commonly referred to as \u201cHelicopter Money.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When the Pandemic hit the Fed had already tapped out MP1. Interest rates were already near zero. Again. The Fed Funds Rate on March 15, 2020 was 0.25%. Likewise, when it comes to MP2, the Fed had never stopped purchasing assets. The Fed wasn\u2019t fighting inflation which stood at 2.5% in March of 2020. The Fed wasn\u2019t dealing with a crisis of credit this go around. Working in concert our government and the Fed needed to create demand in order to avert mass poverty. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The mechanics of combined monetary stimulus from the Fed, and fiscal stimulus from Congress, was inherently inflationary. MP3 created demand without creating any supply. \u201cHelicopter Money\u201d more than made up for the incomes lost to widespread shutdowns without making up for the supply those incomes had been producing. The Federal Government put $6 trillion dollars directly into the hands of consumers, much of it regardless of need. Remember the Paycheck Protection Program, unemployment checks, stimulus checks, and the list goes on. While at the exact same time state and local governments restricted many retail and servcie businesses from opening. Unable to spend on services, and experiences, we sat at home with with all the stimulus in our pockets, along with some of the lowest interest rates in history, and we bought STUFF! We demanded more goods than our logistical infrastructure had ever produced or delivered. 15% more!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Voila, supply shortages. Throw in supply\nchain problems, and we have inflation in goods. Demand for services hasn\u2019t\nfully recovered, but it\u2019s sure headed that way fast!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All the government stimulus has put cash in our pockets, and Quantitative Easing has raised asset values. Interest rates are low. However, one consequence of inflation is it pushed \u201creal\u201d interest rates lower. Depending on which benchmark you use, short-term interest rates are now hovering around -6%. If the Fed follows their recent practice, and raises rates 1\/4% at each of their meetings starting mid-year June, it might add up to a 1.25% interest rate hike by the end of the year. If inflation continues, it will still leave us with negative real interest rates of -3%, which is still incredibly accommodative. This is the box the Fed is currently in. They will have to stop Quantitative Easing, and raise the Fed Funds rate 3%, or more just to get real interest rates to 0%. I suspect if the Fed were to really do this, we would see a financial temper-tantrum on steroids.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019d like to point out, raising interest\nrates will have real consequences. Clearly, higher interest rates would raise\nborrowing costs for the biggest borrower of all, the US Treasury. Our nation\u2019s\ndebt has reached such a size, even tiny interest rate increases add very large\ndollars to our budget deficit, and debt. And, no one goes unscathed. Think of\nall the adjustable rate mortgages, business lines of credit, car loans, and\nmore tied to Treasury yields, the prime rate, or other benchmarks. Real\ninterest rates might still be negative, but higher rates will reduce liquidity,\nand push over leveraged borrowers, of which we have many, into default.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Strangely, the inflation the Fed is trying to fight wasn\u2019t caused by them, and their tools are insufficient to fight it. Yes, the Fed\u2019s Quantitative Easing had an impact on asset inflation, and especially the stock market. QE has been a massive stimulus program for Wall Street, and the stock market, but it did absolutely nothing for the bottom 65% of Americans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Quantitative Easing changed almost\nnothing but asset prices in the financial markets, and low interest rates on\ncar loans and mortgages. And yes, those low interest rates have reduced our\ndebt service costs, which has freed up more cash, which has also added to\ndemand. And, all of that is on the Fed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But, actual inflation? I\u2019m sorry, but that\u2019s all on Congress, and the \u201chelicopter money\u201d they showered on our citizens. The Fed can accommodate Congress by buying the government\u2019s debt, but it shows right back up on their balance sheet. The point is, it\u2019s not \u201chot money.\u201d The multiple stimulus packages passed by Congress were \u201chot money\u201d on steroids. It went straight into the hands of people who, how dare they, actually spent it. And, since they couldn\u2019t spend their \u201chelicopter money\u201d at restaurants, hotels, and travel, they bought \u201cstuff!\u201d So much \u201cstuff\u201d we had demand shock. Consumers wanted more than businesses could or have produce.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But, hold the phone, there\u2019s still more.\nCOVID had a very serious impact on supply, too. When employees can\u2019t come to\nwork, shortages start to build up very quickly. Think chips for example.\nAdditionally, businesses were facing wage inflation, and higher costs for their\nraw materials, or components. So, they raised prices, sometimes because it was\njustified, and sometimes simply because they could. It\u2019s interesting to note,\nprofit margins for the largest companies in the US are at all-time highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cummins Diesel said they will be dealing\nwith chip shortages two more years. Cummins buys run-of-the-mill, low-end\nchips. Chip fabricators do not want to build a factory to manufacture low-end\nchips when the demand for those chips will not be there two, or three years\nfrom now. They want to see 10-year horizons. I suspect it\u2019s exactly the same\nfor multiple businesses all across the spectrum. Businesses see an initial\ndemand created by the massive stimulus from Congress, supply chain disruptions\ncaused by COVID, and realize things will probably settle out, and building\nanother production line today will not be useful when demand evens out two\nyears from now. It\u2019s just going to take us some time to sort through the demand\nand supply shocks. And, there\u2019s not a swinging thing the Fed can do with their\npolicy tools to fix the root cause of inflation created by our Congress with\nall their stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To be clearer, I am by no means saying the Fed should be let off the hook. The Fed\u2019s Treasury bond purchases, and interest rate manipulations did facilitate excess spending. Similarly, their mortgage security purchases did propel the housing boom, which is adding to inflation. It is a very good thing the Fed is now slowing the pace of their purchase, but personally they probably should have done it a year ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I suspect price inflation will continue\nuntil the supply chain catches up with demand, or fiscal and monetary policies\ntighten enough to reduce demand. We all want more, and thanks to MP1, MP2, and\nMP3, most of us can afford more. And, we\u2019ll continue to party before the\npunchbowl runs dry, but run dry it will, for a reason no one can control. Enter\nlabor force participation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our country\u2019s Labor Force Participation,\nnot unemployment, is the big concern. Because, no one can control it. After\nrising for decades, our labor force participation rate peaked at 67.3% in\nJanuary 2000, and is currently 62.3%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As we progress through the decade of\n2020, the decline in our country\u2019s labor participation rate is going to\naccelerate. The driver\u2026 the large population of aging Baby Boomers. Between the\nages of 65 and 74 the Labor Force Participation rate is around 30%, but at age\n75 it drops to 10%. Last year, 2021, the large 1946 born contingent of Boomers\nhit 75. Now, for every year going forward this large horde of workers will be\nleaving the workforce.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhere did all the workers go\u201d is a\nrecurring question I keep hearing. Why did everyone leave the works force and\nnot come back during the COVID era? With this chart, I can partially answer the\nquestion. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The blue line shows retirees as a\npercentage of the US population. As you would expect, it turned higher after\nthe first Baby Boomers turned 65 in 2010. The red line is merely a smoothed\ntrend for the period post 2010.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then came 2020, and we see by the red\narrow a sharp jump in the percentage of retirees above the previous decade\u2019s\ntrend. I would submit to you this jump in retirees wasn\u2019t health, or death\nrelated. Thanks to the monetary policies of the past 14 years, I suspect a very\nlarge percentage of these retirees saw big gains in their portfolios as the\nstock market surged, and decided they could retire earlier than they had\npreviously planned. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On this chart the percentage may look small, but this divergence represent something like 3 million \u201cexcess retirees\u201d above what the prior trend predicted. That represents very significant shrinkage in our labor force in just a single year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Couple it with the Boomer generation, who\nonce blasted hiring managers with hundreds of resumes for every opening, are\nnow leaving the workforce, one way or another. And, unfortunately, subsequent\ngenerations are smaller, because birth rates and immigration fell. Add in the\neffects of COVID, and we now have a severe labor shortage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I don\u2019t\nbelieve we\u2019ve processed how profound this change is going to be. Because\nworkers are scarce relative to demand for their services, they have more\ninfluence. They can demand, and receive higher wages. This is clearly\ninflationary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the very same time we\u2019re awash in available investment capital, which greatly exceeds the demand. This is one reason interest rates have been persistently low. If you want to earn interest income by lending your capital, you are competing with many others who want to do the same. Borrowers will naturally choose the best terms, and so it\u2019s a race to the bottom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bottom line, I believe we are shifting from a capital<\/em>-constrained economy to a labor<\/em>-constrained economy, and I don\u2019t think this will be temporary. Naturally, we\u2019ll see ebbs and flows, but this is generally the way it\u2019s going to be for a while. I know I\u2019m spending little, to almost no time looking for capital, but I am spending a lot of  time finding finding human capital. And, I don\u2019t believe I\u2019m the only CEO experiencing this. The tech world has been dealing with this for some time. Now, it\u2019s becoming the norm for every sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, let\u2019s discuss the stock market for a\nminute. I think this chart speaks volumes about  about the effects of MP3.\nThis chart shows year-over-year money flows into equities. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

You can\u2019t help but notice the recent\nchange. Cash inflows into equites for the past year exceeds all the inflows of\nthe prior 19 years combined! Needless to say, this is not normal. And, all this\nincoming cash raised valuations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s look at Crestmont Research\u2019s Real\nPrice to Earnings chart for the S&P 500. I prefer the Crestmont P\/E ratio\nto the standard P\/E ratio, because it\u2019s based upon the historical relationship\nbetween earnings per share and gross domestic product. This chart covers the\ntime period 1871 through February 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Crestmont Price to Earnings ratio of\n38.9 at the end of February 2022, was 164% above its average, and at the 99th\npercentile of this 14 plus decade series. Our current rally started in early\n2014, but notice the two months in 1929, the tech bubble of 2000, and the end\nof February 2022. All three had Price to Earnings ratios above 25.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You don\u2019t have to be a rocket scientist\nto know both inflation, and deflation are not good for stock investments.\nHistorically, the \u201csweet spot\u201d has been when inflation was between zero and 3%,\nand at much lower valuations. Depending on how you measure standard deviation,\nwe are currently 4 standard deviations from the mean, which is higher than the\nRoaring 20s, and the tech bubble of 2000. By the way, a standard deviation of\n4.0 would occur once every 31,560 days, or about 1 trading day every 126 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All of this suggests one of two things\nneeds to happen. Either inflations needs to drop, or the stock market needs to\ndrop, or some combination of the two. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This will probably be a different\ninvesting environment than most of us have ever known, because as investors, we\nwon\u2019t be in the driver\u2019s seat anymore. Companies who need debt or equity\nfinancing will have many options. As investors, we will have to give them a\nreason to choose us, which will boil down to price and yield.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I believe the large funds will have even\ngreater problems. And, currently underfunded Pension Funds are having to invest\nin overvalued markets, which will swing to undervalued at some point, possibly\nright as those plans need cash to pay benefits. Folks who are counting on one\nof these many underfunded plans for their long retirement may want to start\nmaking alternative plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, I\u2019m sure the question you are\nwaiting for me to go out on a limb and answer is: Are we going to have a bear\nmarket? And, my answer is certainly. But, like you, I\u2019m not sure when. However,\nI would like to make two points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First, the total return of the S&P\n500 has been 10.5% per annum since its inception in 1957. There have been 26\nbear markets since 9\/7\/1929. The longest bear market lasted 630 days starting\n1\/12\/1973, and the shortest bear market lasted 33 day starting 2\/19\/2020, with\nthe average bear market lasting only 289 days. My point here is, with bear\nmarkets averaging only 289 days, it\u2019s easy to see why many an investor have\nunderperformed the market by trying to time the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Secondly, we may already have a bear\nmarket occurring within the S&P 500, and please allow me to explain. While\nthe S&P 500 is made up of 500 companies, 8 companies, which I\u2019ll refer\n to as the \u201cMegaCap-8,\u201d account for 50% of the total market capitalization\nof the S&P 500. Think about that for a minute. 8 companies, not 250\ncompanies, account for half the total value of the S&P 500. In fact, since\n2012, those 8 companies produced a total return 5.6 times greater for their\nshareholders than the other 492 companies combined produced for their shareholders.\nIf you\u2019re curious, those 8 companies are:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. Alphabet (Google)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. Amazon <\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. Apple<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4. Meta (Facebook)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

5. Microsoft<\/p>\n\n\n\n

6. Netflix <\/p>\n\n\n\n

7. NVIDIA<\/p>\n\n\n\n

8. Tesla<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As of March 4th, 2022 those 8 stock\u2019s\nsported a Price to Earnings ratio 66% higher than the Price to Earnings ratio\nof the other 492 companies combined. Long story short, significant portions of\nthe market are already in bear market territory, but the S&P 500 is still\nbeing held up by the \u201cMegaCap-8.\u201d This is one of those times \u201cfriends don\u2019t let\nfriends buy index funds.\u201d This isn\u2019t a normal business or credit cycle. This is\ntruly a unique economic environment, and I suspect a rifle will outperform a\nshotgun when it comes to stock returns for the balance of the 2020s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And with that, I\u2019m going to end this video here. Thank you for watching and if you\u2019re still in need of a sleep aid, please watch the third video in this series for some conclusions to all the groundwork laid in these first two videos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thank you for watching, and I wish you\nall the best!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Below is a transcript of his video and here is a link to the full video explanation. Welcome National Indoor RV Center\u2019s family of customers and friends to RVs, the Economy and You! UPDATE #2, Part Two.  In Part Two we\u2019re going to discuss a little history, along with the following six topics: 1. Monetary Policy 1 … Continue reading RVs, the Economy and You! UPDATE #2, Part Two<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-211","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-rv-lifestyle"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nRVs, the Economy and You! 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