{"id":193,"date":"2022-03-17T00:31:27","date_gmt":"2022-03-17T05:31:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nirvc.com\/blog\/?p=193"},"modified":"2023-01-25T15:59:44","modified_gmt":"2023-01-25T21:59:44","slug":"rvs-the-economy-and-you-update-2-part-one","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nirvc.com\/blog\/rvs-the-economy-and-you-update-2-part-one\/","title":{"rendered":"RVs, the Economy and You! UPDATE #2, Part One"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Below is a transcript of his video and here is a link to the full video explanation<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Greetings National Indoor RV Center\u2019s family of customers and friends. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yes, I\u2019m back with three more videos, which means three more nights of good sleep for you. And, if you find it difficult to concentrate, and follow my Ben Stein\u2019s \u201cBueller, Bueller, Bueller\u201d monotone presentation, I do understand. Heck, I put myself to sleep when I have to re-watch myself after the editing is done. Unfortunately, just like a zebra can\u2019t change its stripes, at my age I certainly can\u2019t change mine either. Regardless, I hope you will find the information interesting, educational, and hopefully helpful. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019d like to start by quoting two lines from Ernest Hemingway\u2019s novel The Sun Also Rises<\/em>, wherein Bill asks \u201cHow did you go bankrupt?\u201d To which Mike responds \u201cTwo ways. Gradually, then suddenly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Most of us don\u2019t like change, but fortunately, it usually occurs slowly. But, every now and then, events like Pearl Harbor, September 11th, and the Pandemic, come out of nowhere, and change everything suddenly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

With 20\/20 hindsight we can look back at those\nevents, and see some clues we just didn\u2019t notice at the time. Change really did\noccur gradually, and then suddenly. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

With the benefit of hindsight, I\u2019d like to take a look at some of the clues which were there for all to see, and share with you some of my observations on 1) how we got to where we are today, 2) where our economy is today, and 3) by knowing where we came from to where we are, should help bring some clarity to what the future may hold for us. Hopefully, this exercise will help set expectations for what we may expect from both our wages, and our investments. Plus, how it may affect our RVing lifestyles, and the prices of coaches in the future. Bottom line, I hope these three videos will help you make more informed decisions in the future. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this first video titled RVs, the Economy and You! UPDATE #2,\nPart One, I\u2019ll start with a small primer on the Federal Reserve System. In\norder to understand prior Monetary Policies, and the actions the Federal\nReserve has taken to bring us to where we are today, we will need a modicum of\nknowledge on how our Federal Reserve System functions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Part Two I\u2019d like to delve a little deeper into six topics.\nAnd, I do emphasize the word a \u201clittle,\u201d because an entire video could easily\nbe devoted to each one of these topics, and it still wouldn\u2019t do them justice.\nThe six topics we\u2019ll discuss in the second video are:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. Monetary Policy 1 (MP1)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. Monetary Policy 2, or \u201cQuantitative Easing\u201d (MP2) QE<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. Monetary Policy 3 (MP3), or \u201cHelicopter Money\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4. Supply and Demand<\/p>\n\n\n\n

5. Labor Force Participation<\/p>\n\n\n\n

6. Stock Market<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Topics one through three will cover what has brought us to where\nwe are today, and topics four through six will bring clarity to where we are\ntoday. After a basic understanding of these six topics, we\u2019ll cover what they\nportend for our future in the last video titled RVs, the Economy and You!\nUPDATE #2, Part Three.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now let\u2019s get started with our Federal Reserve system. Congress has specified three goals the Federal Reserve, while acting as our central bank, is to achieve. And, these goals are:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. Maximum employment<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. Stable prices<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. Moderate long-term interest rates  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the Federal Reserve, or \u201cthe Fed\u201d for short, has several\ntools at their disposal, we\u2019ll be discussing just four of the tools it uses to\nachieve its three goals. These tools are:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. The Reserve Requirement <\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. Their Open Market Operations <\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. The Discount Rate<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4. The Interest Rate on Excess Reserves<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, how do these four tools work, and how has the Fed used them in\nthe past to get us to where we are today?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s start with the definition of \u201creserves.\u201d Bank reserves are the minimal amounts of cash a bank is required to keep on hand in case of an unexpected demand. Excess reserves are the additional cash a bank keeps on hand, and for whatever reason, has declined to loan those funds out. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve sets the Reserve Requirement for banks, which is simply the amount of money banks must<\/strong> keep on hand overnight. Banks can either keep their money in their vaults, or on deposit with the Federal Reserve who is our nation\u2019s Central Bank. When the Fed sets a low reserve requirement it allows our banks to lend out more of their deposits, and is considered expansionary because it creates more credit. Conversely, when the Fed sets a high Reserve Requirement it is considered contractionary, because it results in banks having less money to lend, which constricts credit. It\u2019s worth noting, the Fed rarely changes the Reserve Requirement, because it\u2019s difficult for its member banks to modify their procedures on a dime. So this only occurs at the extremes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, let\u2019s discuss the Fed\u2019s second tool, the Federal Open Market Committee, or the \u201cFOMC.\u201d The FOMC is frequently, if not almost continuously, conducting what\u2019s called \u201cOpen Market Operations.\u201d This is the primary tool the Fed uses to adjust our money supply. Prior to the Great Recession of 2008, Open Market Operations were where the Fed purchased and sold only government securities, which included, Treasury Bonds, Treasury Notes, and Treasury Bills.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, some of you may be asking; what is the difference between a Treasury Bill, a Treasury Note, and a Treasury Bond? And, the answer is maturities. Treasury Bills have a maturity of one year, or less. Treasury Notes have a maturity of two to ten years, and Treasury Bonds have a maturity of ten to thirty years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And, for those of you who are unfamiliar with how bonds work, let\u2019s take a minute to review. Bonds are typically issued by governments, municipalities, or corporations when they want to raise money. By buying a bond, you\u2019re giving the issuer a loan, and they agree to pay you back the original face amount of the bond on a specified date, and to pay you periodic interest payments along the way, usually twice a year. Bonds with a fixed-rate coupon pay the same percentage of their face value over time, however, the market price of the bond will fluctuate as the coupon becomes more or less attractive when compared to prevailing interest rates.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

For example, let\u2019s imagine a bond was issued with a coupon rate of\n5%, and with a face amount of $1,000, or \u201cpar value.\u201d The bondholder will be\npaid $50 in interest annually. Most bond coupons are split in half and paid\nsemiannually. As long as the interest rate environment doesn\u2019t change, the\nprice of the bond\u2019s par value will remain at its original face amount. But,\ngiven bonds are traded every second of every day the interest rate environment\nis constantly changing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s assume interest rates begin to decline, and similar bonds\nare now being issued with a 4% coupon, our original bond has become more\nvaluable. Investors will now have to pay extra for our bond in order to entice\nus to sell. The increased price brings the bond\u2019s total yield down to 4% for\nthe new investor, because they had to pay an amount above our par value to\npurchase our bond.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

On the other hand, if interest rates rise, and coupon rates for\nsimilar bonds are now 6%, our 5% coupon is no longer attractive. Our original\nbond\u2019s price will decrease, and begin selling at a discount compared to our par\nvalue until its effective return is 6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Now, getting back to the Fed\u2019s Open Market Operations. All purchases and sales of Treasuries by the Fed, are carried out by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York through its Primary Dealers. When the Fed purchases Treasury Securities, four things happen:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. Our Central Bank is creating more demand for those Treasuries, which in turn drives their prices higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. As the prices rise the yield on those Treasuries drops, and it has the affect of reducing interest rates across the board of similar maturities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. As the Central Bank purchases these Treasury Securities they\nare taking these securities out of the market place, and replacing them with\ncash.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4. This new cash, or reserves as they are sometimes called, gives\nour banks more money to lend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, when our Central Bank is purchasing Securities, it is\nconsidered to be an expansionary monetary policy, or the Fed is being\naccommodative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When our Central Bank is selling Treasury Securities from their balance sheet, it all happens in reverse:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. Our Central Bank is adding to the existing supply of Treasury\nSecurities in the market place, which in turn drives their prices lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. As prices drop, the yield on those Treasuries increases, and\nhas the affect of raising interest rates across the board on similar\nmaturities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. As the Central Bank sells their Treasury Securities they are adding those securities to the market place, and pulling cash back out of our banking system.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

4. This reduction in cash leaves our banks with less money to\nlend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When our Central Bank is selling Treasury Securities, it is\nconsidered to be executing a tight monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This entire process is frequently referred to as \u201cprinting money,\u201d\nbecause our Federal Reserve, acting as our country\u2019s Central Bank, is the only\nentity who can buy securities without having cash in their account. Instead,\nthe Fed just credits the selling bank\u2019s account, which is how they have\nexpanded our money supply over time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Number next, let\u2019s discuss the Fed\u2019s third tool, the Discount Rate. The Discount Rate is the rate our Central Bank charges member banks to borrow at its \u201cDiscount Window.\u201d Because the Discount Rate is higher than the Fed Funds rate, banks only borrow at the \u201cDiscount Window\u201d if they can\u2019t borrow funds from other banks through what\u2019s called Fed funds. Using the Discount Window has always had a negative stigma attached to it, as the financial community assumes any bank who borrows from the Discount Window is in trouble. After all, only a desperate bank who has been rejected by all other banks in the Fed Funds market would use the discount window.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Now for the final tool we will discuss, which is the Interest Rate\non Excess Reserves. And, I will confess, I have zero experience with this tool\nof the Fed, as it didn\u2019t exist back during the years when I owned a bank.\nInterest Rate on Excess Reserves was created in response to the Great Recession\nof 2008. Since October 6th, 2008 the Federal Reserve has paid interest on any\nexcess reserves our country\u2019s banks may have on deposit with the Fed. Remember,\nmoney always flows to where it\u2019s best treated. So, if the Fed wants banks to\nlend more money, it lowers the rate it pays on their excess reserves below the\nrate they can earn by lending. Conversely, if the Fed wants banks to lend less,\nit raises the rate it pays on their excess reserves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s probably worth noting, interest on excess reserves also supports the Fed Funds rate. And, you\u2019re probably asking how? Well, at the close of business everyday banks either have excess reserves, cash they haven\u2019t lent, or they\u2019re short cash. These excesses and shortages zero themselves out on a nightly basis with overnight Fed Funds. If you\u2019re a bank with excess cash, you want it earning interest at all times. You don\u2019t want your cash sitting idle overnight, because as a bank you are paying interest to your depositors every night. Interest never sleeps. So, you\u2019ll lend your excess cash to other banks who are in need of cash to balance their accounts. These funds are lent through a regional Federal Reserve Bank in what is commonly referred to as \u201cFed Funds.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, if I\u2019m a bank with excess cash, and the Fed is paying me more for my Excess Cash than other banks are willing to pay through Fed Funds, well I\u2019ll lend my money overnight to the Fed. And, vice versus. If other banks are willing to pay a higher rate than the Fed for my excess cash, then I\u2019ll lend my excess cash to other banks through Fed Funds. So, this is how the Fed uses interest on excess reserves to help support the Fed Funds rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bottom line, the Federal Reserve, acting as our country\u2019s Central\nBank, uses the tools we\u2019ve just discussed to increase or decrease our nation\u2019s\ntotal liquidity, which is the amount of capital available to invest or lend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With this little primer on the Federal Reserve under our belt, we\ncan discuss what the impacts have been to our economy as a result of the Fed\u2019s\nopen market operations over the past 14 years in RVs, the Economy and You!\nUPDATE #2, Part Two video.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thank you for listening to my ramblings, and if you\u2019re still\nawake, I\u2019ll continue my musings in the next video.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Below is a transcript of his video and here is a link to the full video explanation. Greetings National Indoor RV Center\u2019s family of customers and friends.  Yes, I\u2019m back with three more videos, which means three more nights of good sleep for you. And, if you find it difficult to concentrate, and follow my … Continue reading RVs, the Economy and You! UPDATE #2, Part One<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-193","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-rv-lifestyle"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nRVs, the Economy and You! UPDATE #2, Part One - National Indoor RV Centers - Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nirvc.com\/blog\/rvs-the-economy-and-you-update-2-part-one\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"RVs, the Economy and You! UPDATE #2, Part One - National Indoor RV Centers - Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Below is a transcript of his video and here is a link to the full video explanation. Greetings National Indoor RV Center\u2019s family of customers and friends.  Yes, I\u2019m back with three more videos, which means three more nights of good sleep for you. And, if you find it difficult to concentrate, and follow my … Continue reading RVs, the Economy and You! 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